The Loaf: Week 1 College Football Picks

Welcome back to The Loaf! We’re back at it for Week One of the 2019 College Football season!!! Finally at long last, we’ve reached the first full weekend of the 2019 season. Tonight begins a stretch of five consecutive days of college football and I couldn’t be more excited!!

Of course, there were a couple games last week for Week Zero, but my picks for last week were available exclusively on my own personal blog, Pigskin & Pastime. I can tell you now, though, that I went 3-0 last week, cashing in the Miami-Florida (UNDER 46.5), the Hawaii-Arizona (OVER 71.5), and Hawaii (+11) in that same game.

That means we’re 3-0 on the season, and now as we head into our first full slate of the season, I’m so excited to get The Toast. Here’s what I’ve got for Week One:

I have a couple weeknight plays, and I’ll start with Oklahoma State (-14) at Oregon State. This is kind of an odd matchup. You don’t see too many home & homes between Pac 12 and Big 12 teams, but I’m here for it. I feel like the Pokes are being undervalued here, though. This is an Oklahoma State team that can move the ball very well, and will likely score almost every time out against the Beavers’ defense. Sure, Oklahoma State’s defense isn’t great itself, but Oregon State is literally so bad. Like, I feel like if this game were played in Stillwater rather than Corvallis, Oklahoma State would win by 4 touchdowns. Corvallis doesn’t swing this thing by two scores. Oklahoma State is just a lot more than just two touchdowns better than Oregon State. GIVE ME PISTOL PETE! Oklahoma State 45, Oregon State 24

oklahoma state

Oklahoma State has potential to make it ugly Friday night in Corvallis; I think the Cowboys do manage to do that. Photo Credit: College Football News

My other weeknight play also comes on Friday night; give me Tulsa vs #18 Michigan State (UNDER 48). Dude, Sparty unders are basically free money at this point. This number is simply too high. I mean, what are we doing? Tulsa isn’t scoring more than 17, and likely not more than 14. Sparty’s defense is too good, and Tulsa is also just really bad. And assuming this is all true, and even if the Golden Hurricane can manage somewhere around 14, do you expect me to believe that Michigan State scores 5 touchdowns? In 2019? No sir. Sure, Tulsa might be liable to give up a lot of points. I get that. But still. No. This is a principle play more than anything else. Under. Michigan State 31, Tulsa 10

sparty

One thing you’ll see a lot of this year on The Loaf is Principle Plays. I’ll keep coming back to the well on certain things because they keep The Toast toasty. Sparty unders are a big one. This won’t be the last time we see Michigan State. Photo Credit: The Only Colors

We move to Saturday with Memphis (-5.5) vs Ole Miss, and this one seemed too easy to me. There’s some stuff I could say to explain this, but it’s as simple as this: Memphis is a really good football team. Ole Miss is a really mediocre football team. It’s Opening Day, the game is being played AT Memphis, as the Tigers prepare to host a Power 5 opponent. Memphis will care a lot about winning this game, and it’s the better team too, as I mentioned. They have a high-flying offense that moves up and down the field quickly, and will likely do it with ease against an Ole Miss defense that, last year, couldn’t stop a nosebleed. I’m sure Ole Miss will score some in this game, but I can’t see them keeping up with the Tigers, especially while playing in that will surely be a hostile road environment. #Power6 Memphis 45, Ole Miss 28

memphis

I’m actually so excited for this game. It’s going to be one of the closer and more exciting games of the weekend, and lots of points will be had. Photo Credit: Athlon Sports

After I just took a Group of 5 team against a Power 5 team, I’m gonna flip it around and take Tennessee (-26) vs Georgia State, because, um, this number is just way too small? I’m not sure if we’re undervaluing Tennessee here or

tennessee

Look for Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano to put up big numbers against a miserable Georgia State defense. Photo Credit: Bleacher Report

overvaluing Georgia State, but this is crazy. Georgia State is so bad. Atlanta’s beloved Panthers have consistently been mediocre-at-best in what is annually the most miserably bad conference in College Football, getting absolutely rinsed by teams a lot worse than Tennessee. But you mean to tell me they’re gonna keep it within 4 touchdowns on Opening Day at Neyland? Nah man. That said, I also think Tennessee is better than people think; I firmly believe the Vols easily make a bowl this season. I’m also a firm believer in Jeremy Pruitt, and I think his players and fan base are too. Tennessee will be hyped going into this game, wanting to show off how good they are against an inferior opponent, similar to Harbaugh’s Michigan teams, and me playing NCAA 14. Tennessee will cover the 26 without much trouble. Tennessee 45, Georgia State 14

It’s usually a general consensus that, on principle, you don’t take Kansas as a favorite. But here I go. Give me Kansas (-4) vs Indiana State. I get it. It’s Kansas. But four points??

kansas

Pooka Williams. Easily the second most electric player in college football, trailing only Rondale Moore. Photo Credit: Zimbio

Indiana State isn’t even that good of an FCS team! Maybe I’m a bit blinded by the Les Miles hire, but seriously. Pooka Williams is good enough to carry this team, and, truthfully, I think Les Miles does play a big part in this. I wasn’t his biggest fan during his days in Baton Rouge, simply because of his stubbornness to change literally anything. But he’s still an awesome dude, and a great football coach too. I expect him to do great things during his time in Lawrence. That being said, something just doesn’t mesh in my head when you tell me Les Miles is going to let an FCS team keep within a touchdown. Not in his first game back. No way. Kansas 31, Indiana State 14

I have eight total picks this week, and a whopping five of them are favorites. So here’s my last one: give me #3 Georgia (-21) at Vanderbilt. I picked Georgia a lot last year, and they almost always cashed  (all except for the Sugar Bowl). I’m a very strong supporter of Kirby Smart and everything he’s done at Georgia, and I really do believe that he’s going to win a ring or two before all is said and done in Athens. Obviously it ain’t that deep though when you’re just talking about a game with Vanderbilt. But the point is, Georgia is so good. On their own level

uga

I love Jake Fromm. Even as a Tech fan, he’s got to be the most likable player in college football. He’s going to embarrass the ‘Dores on Saturday night. Photo Credit: 247Sports

below Clemson and Alabama but above Oklahoma and Michigan, in my opinion. And here’s me thing. Clemson and Bama would beat Vandy by 50. So why are we only giving UGA 21? They’re an elite college football team, and Vanderbilt is a mediocre-at-best team. The stadium will be 70% Georgia fans, and it’s the Opening Night of the season! Georgia will be motivated, will have the noise advantage, and will have the much better team. It’s a wrap! Georgia 42, Vanderbilt 10

 

We move to Sunday now with Houston at #4 Oklahoma (OVER 82.5). Like Sparty unders, Oklahoma overs are a staple of The Loaf, and, honestly, one of my favorite things to pick. Overs are fun anyway, because I love points upon points upon points. Then when you factor in the fact that it’s Oklahoma? Lincoln Riley masterfully running the most exciting offense in the sport? Come on now, man. I’m so excited to see Jalen Hurts this season. His Heisman campaign starts Sunday night against Houston, where I think he and his arsenal of weapons will light up the scoreboard. As they always do. Another consistency? The Oklahoma defense. And how bad it is. Houston has some weapons on offense, and it’s not far-fetched to say the Dana Holgerson-led Cougs score a lot Sunday night. This game is going to be so awesome and I’m so excited for it. This is gonna be one of those pack-a-sandwich games; expect it to last around 4 hours. Oklahoma 52, Houston 41

oklahoma

CeeDee Lamb is one of many weapons Jalen Hurts will have at his disposal Sunday night against Houston. We know this much: points will be had by the Sooners. Photo Credit: Athlon Sports

We’re gonna wrap it up this week with a Labor Day pick – I like Louisville (+19.5) vs #9 Notre Dame. This pick is probably more fade Notre Dame than it is pro-Cards, but don’t get me wrong. Louisville got it right with Scott Satterfield, and he’s going to do well there. I think he will surpass expectations in year one (only in the sense that Louisville won’t be the worst team in the ACC; it’ll be Carolina), and I expect his team to perform well Monday night at home with the crowd behind them. That said, I’m sick of this story with Notre Dame. When will we learn? I refuse to ever trust this fraudulent, sorry excuse for an elite football team ever again. Nope. They aren’t about to win a road game against a Power 5 team by 3 touchdowns. No way in heck. It’s nothing but principle. Rudy was offsides. So there. Notre Dame 34, Louisville 28

louisville

Honestly, Louisville could win this game straight up and it wouldn’t surprise me. Wouldn’t trust the Irish as far as Jawon Pass could “pass” them. (I laughed, and that’s’ what matters) Photo Credit: Kentucky Today.

And that’s all I’ve got for Week 1’s edition of The Loaf! I can’t promise we keep our undefeated streak alive, but let’s at least hope we can build on the momentum with a solid week!!

As always, let’s get The Toast!!

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